A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
